Mistrals And Economy: François Hollande's Miscalculation

Answer to the question: What will you tell to all the workers that would end up jobless if the Mistral deal is cancelled and in case Russia does not pay the bill?

Our goal is not job losses but to create new jobs. The best way to preserve and create jobs, including in St Nazaire (where the Mistrals are built), is to make sure the Mistrals are not delivered to Putin's Russia as explained in details below:

Right now, delivering the Mistrals to Putin's Russia would be a huge financial mistake and miscalculation on both short and long term. Putin's Russia closed its arms market to foreign industries. The opening of Russian market during which the Mistrals were bought was a very short one. Delivering them hoping to get new sales is a lost bet.

Putin's openly agressive policy against Russia's neighbouring countries has a major consequence that one should take into consideration: Poland and other countries are higly increasing their defense budgets to get ready for a Russian agression. They have huge needs in that area that their own industry can't cover most of the time.

The polish market of arms by itself represents 41 billion euros to be spent before 2022 for the modernization of its armed forces. Let's have a look at the details of the different tenders on which France is shortlisted for Poland

- 64 multirole fighter aircrafts (Rafale): 10 billion euros

- medium-range anti-aircraft missiles (Aster-30): 5 billion Euros

- 70 helicopters (EC725 Caracal): 2.5 billion Euros

- 30 attack helicopters (Tigre EC-663): 600 million euros

- 6 corvettes (Gowind, built by DCNS in St Nazaire): 1.3 billion euros

- 3 large submarines (Scorpene, built by DCNS in St Nazaire): 1.9 billion euros

- 1 amphibious assault ship class Mistral (BPC-140), built by DCNS in St Nazaire

The value of the tenders that DCNS (which is building the Mistrals in St Nazaire) is about to lose by themselves is between 3.2 and 4 billion euros.

Hundreds of potential jobs are endangered by the delivery of the Mistrals to Putin's Russia. Poland, in these tenders, will most likely not consider a country which decides to arm Putin who is threatening Poland's neighbours (and implemented sanctions affecting Poland).

Besides St Nazaire, if we consider the arms industry market in France, we can add a potential loss of about 20 billion euros and a huge number of jobs. In addition, the tender for a new a nuclear plant (19.5 billion euros) might be closed to the French industry too.

A call to boycott the French arms industry has already been published in polish newspapers. The danger for the french economy is getting bigger and bigger everyday that brings us closer to the delivery of the first Mistral to Putin. It is high time to react!

The call to boycott the French arms industry has been translated in French "here" and is available in polish "here".

François Hollande has to find another buyer for the Mistrals in order to protect the french economy and jobs. Even though none of the countries critisizing openly the deal have made an offer so far, François Hollande is not better as he did not even look for an alternative buyer. Who will suffer from that? French economy and French jobs, in particular in St Nazaire.

Who will benefit from the delivery of the Mistrals to Russia? The USA and other European countries whose arms market will be preferred to the French one in Poland other countries near Russia.

Poland is only one of the many countries that might close its market to the French arms industry. Czech Republic announced in May that it will increase the defense budget by 40% following the crisis in Ukraine. Lithuania and Latvia both announced their intention to considerable increase the budget in this area too to counter the Putin's open threats.

The excuse used until now by the French Government that cancelling the Mistral deal with Russia would have as a consequence that India might reconsider buying 126 "Rafale" is a bad one too: Informal reports indicate that Arun Jaitley, who is the Indian Minister of Defense as well as the Minister of Finances proposed to reduce the number of airplanes from 126 to 80 to reduce the expense. Delivering the Mistrals to Russia would close the polish market of 64 "Rafale" and as a consequence, the only available option left to Poland would be to buy the American F-35.

Not to exlude either, US targeted sanctions against STX and lead to canceling the deal for the biggest cruise vessel in the World: the Oasis 4.

In the interests of the French economic growth and jobs, it is becoming an emergency to find another buyer than Putin's Russia for the Mistrals. Those who pretend the opposite, including in the French Government, have hidden interests. French people and specifically from St Nazaire should not have to pay the price for this wrong choice.

Bernard Grua, Robert Wężowicz

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Sources:

http://www.defence24.pl/news_patriot-i-sampt-w-postepowaniu-na-wisle-jakie-kryteria

http://www.defence24.pl/news_postepowanie-na-smiglowce-dla-polskiej-armii-w-decydujacej-fazie

http://www.defence24.pl/analiza_bitwa-o-smiglowce-uderzeniowe-dla-polski-jaka-maszyna-zastapi-mi-24

http://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/news/naval-exhibitions/balt-military-expo-2014/1894-at-balt-military-expo-2014-dcns-unveiled-the-new-gowind-1000-corvette.html

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21608788-government-steps-up-its-defence-spending-front-line-state

http://www.defence24.pl/news_mon-chce-kupic-do-2030-r-64-samoloty-wielozadaniowe-v-tej-generacji